^Original-Research: Media and Games Invest SE - von GBC AGEinstufung von GBC AG zu Media and Games Invest SEUnternehmen: Media and Games Invest SEISIN: MT0000580101Anlass der Studie: Research study (Anno)Empfehlung: BUYKursziel: 5.75 EURLetzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker2021 financial year with significant revenue and earnings increasescompleted; Significant increase in revenue and earnings also expected forthe current financial year 2022; The successful growth strategy and thevery scalable business model should lead to a disproportionately earningsdevelopment; Target price: EUR 5.75 (previously: EUR 9.40); Rating: BUY According to published business figures, Media and Games Invest SE (MGI)achieved a new record in the past financial year 2021 with growth of around80.0% to EUR 252.17 million (PY: EUR 140.22 million). The strong growth inthe fourth quarter in particular contributed to their high revenue growth(Q4 2021: EUR 80.2 million vs. revenue Q4 2020: EUR 48.70 million), whichwas also the strongest quarter in terms of revenue and earnings in thecompany's history to date. The main growth driver has been the advertisingsoftware platform business on the supply side which, in recent years, hasbuilt up a strong SDK base with direct integration in over 20,000 apps,many of which come from the premium sector and have a large reach, enablingMGI to reach more than two billion mobile end users, according to its ownfigures. Accordingly, MGI is now one of the top five providers in themobile advertising market when it comes to reach and is also the leadingprovider when it comes to traffic quality, according to Pixalate's MobileSeller Trust Index. This exceeded the company's guidance (revenue of EUR234.0 million to EUR 254.0 million) and also our revenue estimate (GBCe:EUR 234.15 million). Even stronger growth was achieved at the earnings level. Compared to theprevious year, EBITDA grew very dynamically by around 145.0% to EUR 65.04million (previous year: EUR 26.55 million). EBITDA, adjusted for one-offeffects (e.g. special and restructuring costs from M&As), increased by144.3% to EUR 71.10 million (previous year: EUR 29.55 million). This meansthat the company's earnings guidance (adjusted EBITDA: EUR 65.0 million toEUR 70.0 million) and also our earnings estimate (adjusted EBITDA: EUR65.71 million) were also exceeded. MGI also expects to continue its dynamic growth course in the currentfinancial year 2022. Thus, despite the macroeconomic trends, managementexpects to significantly increase revenue in a range of EUR 295.0 millionto EUR 315.0 million. At the earnings level, adjusted EBITDA (Adj. EBITDA)of between EUR 83.0 million and EUR 93.0 million should be achieved. In our last research report on the MGI Q1 figures, we confirmed ourpreviously raised revenue and earnings forecasts due to the strong firstquarter, the promising growth strategy and the unchanged outlook. For thecurrent financial year 2022, we continue to expect revenues of EUR 307.22million and EBITDA of EUR 87.52 million. For the following financial years2023 and 2024, we are conservatively adjusting our previous estimatesdownwards due to the current recessionary trends and the latest news fromthe advertising market. We now expect revenues of EUR 345.11 million(previously: EUR 377.76 million) and EUR 402.55 million (previously: EUR473.08 million). With regard to EBITDA, we expect EUR 96.05 million(previously: EUR 116.94 million) and EUR 115.80 million (previously: EUR147.33 million). Overall, MGI's good market position should enable it to continue to growvery dynamically and highly profitably as an ad tech platform with its owngames content. While the company has built up a strong position on thesupply side in recent years, with a strong SDK base in the premium mobileapp sector, the demand side is to be significantly strengthened in thefuture. With the recently acquired Contextual Mobile Demand Side Platform'Dataseat', the company has acquired an important building block for this.As a result of the acquisition, the management would like to concentrate onorganic growth for the time being, but does not completely rule out furtheracquisitions if the right opportunities arise. Due to the high scalabilityof the business model and the expected efficiency gains tob e achievedthrough the close interlinking of the business areas, the group'sprofitability should remain at a high level in the future. In addition, MGI is very well positioned with a liquidity estimated by usat the end of H1 2022 of around EUR 130 million (including credit lines)after the last earn-out payments for KingsIsle and can thus both seizeinvestment opportunities and comfortably cushion a possible recession. Theleverage ratio, which we estimate to be around 3.5x due to the cash-out inQ2 2022, should also fall to below 3.0 in the medium term due to thepositive cash flow and expected EBITDA growth. In our view, the marketshould have already priced in the debt, so we see a potential catalyst in apossible reduction in the leverage ratio in the coming 12 months. Within the framework of our DCF valuation model, we have lowered our targetprice to EUR 5.75 (previously: EUR 9.40) per share due to our reducedforecasts for the 2023 and 2024 financial years and the associated lowerstarting point for the subsequent estimation periods. Higher capital costs(increase in the risk-free interest rate to 1.25% instead of 0.40%) havealso had the effect of reducing the price target. The so-called 'roll-overeffect' (price target related to the following financial year 2023 insteadof 2022) counteracted an even stronger price target reduction. In view ofthe current share price level, we continue to issue a 'buy' rating and seesignificant upside potential. The results of our peer group analysis (seep. 18) also support our assessment of the attractiveness and pricepotential of the MGI share.Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:http://www.more-ir.de/d/24719.pdfKontakt für RückfragenGBC AGHalderstrasse 2786150 Augsburg0821 / 241133 0research@gbc-ag.de++++++++++++++++Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,5b,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung+++++++++++++++Date (time) of completion: 01/08/2022 (12:42)Date (time) of first distribution: 02/08/2022 (10:30)-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatungoder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.°