^Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE - von GBC AGEinstufung von GBC AG zu Bitcoin Group SEUnternehmen: Bitcoin Group SEISIN: DE000A1TNV91Anlass der Studie: Research report (Anno)Empfehlung: BuyKursziel: 58.00 EURKursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024Letzte Ratingänderung: Analyst: Strengthening in the crisis, safety standards and trust as success factors.Competitive environment clears up, Opportunities for further growth. In 2022, Bitcoin Group recorded a significant year-on-year decline inrevenues of approximately 67.1% to EUR8.34 million (PY: EUR25.39 million). Thisdecline was mainly due to the decreased trading volume on bitcoin.de.Several factors contributed to this decline, including interest rate hikesby major central banks worldwide, which made credit-financed cryptoinvestments more expensive and traditional investment products moreattractive. In addition, the Ukraine war, increased inflation, and thecollapse of the FTX crypto exchange in November 2022 affected investorconfidence in cryptocurrencies and crypto trading exchanges. Due to the significant decrease in revenues, Bitcoin Group's EBITDAdecreased from EUR19.75 million (FY 2021) to EUR1.37 million (FY 2022). Thenegative result led to a tax income of EUR1.27 million and a net result ofEUR-2.41 million (PY: EUR13.37 million). Bitcoin Group's equity decreased to EUR73.35 million as of 12/31/2022(12/31/21: EUR151.65 million), mainly due to the price development of thedevalued long-term crypto holdings. Nevertheless, the equity ratioincreased to over 77.2% (12/31/2021: 73.0%). The company has lowinterest-bearing liabilities and significant net financial assets of EUR14.79million. Crypto holdings decreased to EUR70.77 million (12/31/21: EUR181.08million) due to exchange rate losses, while net crypto holdings afterdeducting deferred tax liabilities amounted to EUR54.42 million (12/31/21:EUR132.43 million). Due to the increase in many cryptocurrencies (June 2023)by about 80% compared to 12/31/2021, we estimate the current cryptoholdings to be around EUR125 million. Taking into account the also increaseddeferred tax liabilities, we forecast a current net crypto stock of aroundEUR100 million. If net crypto holdings are added to cash and cashequivalents, the company currently has an enterprise value of around EUR45million, which we believe already represents a significant undervaluationof the company. Bitcoin Group's management expects a slight decline in revenues and aslightly negative EBITDA for the financial year 2023. The exact forecast isdifficult due to the current situation (Ukraine war, regulatoryuncertainties). Nevertheless, the company sees itself emerging strongerfrom the challenging market conditions of 2022 and is aiming for EU-wideuniform regulation to drive expansion. The stock-to-flow model shows apositive correlation between the scarcity of Bitcoin and its price. Basedon the model, the BTC price is expected to turn bullish in the near future,especially due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024. Our revenueforecast for Bitcoin Group is EUR7.03 million in 2023 and EUR13.57 million in2024. Bitcoin Group has canceled the planned acquisition of Bankhaus von derHeydt as it sees no added value for the company and its shareholders. Theacquisition had incurred monthly costs, which will affect the result of thefiscal year 2023. According to our forecasts, we expect EBITDA of EUR-0.08million in 2023 and EUR5.31 million in 2024. Net income, according to ourestimates, will be EUR-0.2 million in 2023 and EUR3.37 million in 2024. Thereis a possibility that the company will sell part of its crypto equityholdings to take advantage of the negative earnings trend and pay lowertaxes on the sale. Such an action would improve net income, but we have notfactored this into our guidance. We still expect a dividend of 10 cents tobe proposed to shareholders. Based on our DCF model, we have raised our price target to EUR58.00(previously: EUR50.00). The adjustment of the forecast is based on opposingeffects in the valuation model. On the one hand, risk-free interest rateshave increased, on the other hand, we have slightly adjusted our forecastand since the last valuation in December 2022, cryptocurrencies have againincreased significantly. This led to a significant increase in net cryptoholdings. Due to the upside potential, we assign a Buy rating.Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:http://www.more-ir.de/d/27503.pdfKontakt für RückfragenGBC AGHalderstraße 2786150 Augsburg0821 / 241133 0research@gbc-ag.de++++++++++++++++Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a;11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung+++++++++++++++Date and time of completion of the study: 09.08.2023 (12:00) Date and time of the first disclosure of the study: 16.08.2023 (10:00)-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatungoder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.°