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Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - from NuWays AG

01.11.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to MAX Automation SE

Company Name: MAX Automation SE
ISIN: DE000A2DA588

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 01.11.2024
Target price: EUR 7.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Konstantin Völk

Guidance revision // muted Q3 ahead; chg. est. & PT

Topic: MAX will release its Q3 numbers on November 8th. We expect sales and
margins to remain muted. Further, on Tuesday evening, the company cut its
FY24e guidance.

Investment reluctance among customers puts pressure on MAX: due to the
current challenging macro, restrictive financing conditions and persistently
high price levels, customers hesitate to place orders. Order intake in
H1'24e fell by 14% to EUR 167m and backlog by 11% to EUR 184m. bdtronic is
particularly impacted as the demand for EVs slowed down in the recent
quarters. Consequently, we expect Q3 sales to decrease 9.9% yoy to EUR 90m.
EBITDA should come in at EUR 7.1m (eNuW), with a 7.9% margin.

Bdtronic impacted from cyclical demand: bdtronic has significantly expanded
its capacity in FY23 due to an extraordinarily strong demand for its
impregnation and dispensing machines and occupied c. 120 external services
on the peak to handle the rapidly increased order intake. However, as the
demand for electric vehicles in the US and Europe calmed down in H1'24, OEMs
hesitate to expand their EV capacities. Therefore, bdtronic's cyclical order
intake decreased sharply by 52% yoy to EUR 32m (H1'24 backlog EUR 34m, -56%
yoy). While bdtronic had to increase its capacity in FY23, they are now
suffering from overcapacity and external personnel can be reduced only
slowly and successively because of their idiosyncratic know-how within
specific projects. We expect the situation to remain challenging throughout
H2'24e and expect sales of EUR 17m and EUR 0.6m EBITDA in Q3 for bdtronic.

Elwema shows resilience: in contrast to bdtronic, Elwema's order intake
showed a very positive development and rose by 32% to EUR 40m in H1'24 thanks
to a solid demand for combustion engines in the US. Thanks to a steady
stream of follow-up orders and long lead times of 12-18 months, the company
secured already enough projects for FY25e.

FY24e guidance revised: MAX revised its forecast for the current fiscal year
due to a decline in order intake. Sales are now expected to come in at EUR
350-380m (previously: EUR 390-450m; eNuW old: EUR 378m) with an EBITDA in the
range of EUR 27-31m (previously: EUR 31-38m; eNuW old: EUR 31m). Despite the
challenging macroeconomic environment, the new guidance looks plausible in
our view (eNuW sales EUR 366m, EBITDA EUR 29m). Nevertheless, as mid-term
prospects remain intact, we reiterate BUY with a new PT of EUR 7.00 (old: EUR
7.50), based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31161.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2020525 01.11.2024 CET/CEST

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