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Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - from NuWays AG

09.01.2025 / 09:05 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
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Classification of NuWays AG to MAX Automation SE

Company Name: MAX Automation SE
ISIN: DE000A2DA588

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 7.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Konstantin Völk

Mixed FY25e outlook due to restrained demand; chg. est.

Topic: After an already muted FY24e, we expect the situation to remain
challenging during FY25e. Nevertheless, mid-term prospects continue to be
solid and the investment case remains intact.

Thus far, sales in 9M'24 declined by 5.8% due to a soft order backlog and
investment reluctance across all portfolio companies except ELWEMA. With a
book-to-bill ratio of 0.86x, the order backlog decreased 19.8% yoy to only EUR
165m end of 9M'24. This should put further pressure on top-line growth for
FY25e in addition to low order intake numbers. Hence, we expect sales to
come in at EUR 364m, showing a flat development yoy. Moreover, we expect
EBITDA to decline to EUR 25m due to increasing personnel costs and a EUR 4.5m
positive one-off in Q3'24 from a litigation in connection with the sale of
NSM Packtec.

The situation is particular troublesome for bdtronic due to low order
intakes affected by the EV crisis. Especially Germany showed decreasing EV
(excluding PHEV) registrations of 26% yoy in 11M'24 (source: VDA) due to the
abrupt end of the environmental bonus in December 2023. In addition, the
supply of affordable cars from China increases the competition for
bdtronic's core market (Germany 35% of sales in FY23, other Europe 33%).
While FY24e was still able to benefit from a solid order book at the end of
FY23, FY25e should be affected increasingly from the recently declined
backlogs (EUR 30m 9M'24 vs. EUR 76m 9M'23). Consequently, we expect a material
sales decline to EUR 77m next year and EBITDA to remain on a low level due to
negative operating leverage and the increased headcount during 2023. Having
said that, bdtronic remains a leading expert in its field and once the
cyclical demand recovers, we expect top- and bottom-line to normalize.

On the other hand, Elwema shows resilience. Thanks to a steady stream of
follow-up orders (+26% yoy order intake in 9M'24) and long lead times of
12-18 months, the company has secured already well enough projects for
FY25e. Hence, we expect to see mid- to high single digit growth rates for
FY25e.

Sale of MA micro supports bottom-line: MAX received c. EUR 70m cash inflow for
the sale of MA micro in Q3'24, of which c. EUR 60m was used to reduce debt.
This should lead to an interest expense reduction of EUR 4-5m in FY25e (eNuW)
supporting the bottom-line substantially and could potentially even lead to
an increase in earnings from continuing operations (eNuW FY25e EUR 6.2m vs. EUR
5.5m in FY24e).

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31603.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2064075 09.01.2025 CET/CEST

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