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Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG

04.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE

Company Name: Cantourage Group SE
ISIN: DE000A3DSV01

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 04.11.2025
Target price: EUR 10.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Q3 prelims: Growth remains strong // int. expansion ongoing
Cantourage's Q3 sales surged 52% to EUR 20m but regulatory uncertainties and
price pressures weigh on margins. Maintain BUY with a EUR10.50 price target.
Cantourage reported strong Q3 sales of EUR 20m, up 52% yoy (9m sales of EUR
74.9m, +148% yoy) thanks to a strong international momentum and continued
demand in its home-turf Germany. Yet, this is a sequential slow down
compared to the previous quarter with EUR 27.9m due to prevailing
uncertainties surrounding regulatory changes in Germany and resulting
cautious demand and somewhat lower pricing as several players notably
decrease prices to clear inventories (cannabis flowers are perishable).
EBITDA during the first nine months stood at EUR 3.9m (+86% yoy), implying a
margin of 5.2%, partially underpinning the company's strong operating
performance and high scalability of the business model but at the same time
temporarily burdened by the German market's current price pressure amid an
industry wide inventory wind down.
FY25 expectations partially reachable. So far, the company has not issued a
concrete guidance for this financial year. While market expectations for FY
sales of EUR 87m (eNuW: EUR 88.6m) seem sensible, estimates for EBITDA of EUR 7m
(eNuW old: EUR 6.5m) should be somewhat to high; eNuW new: EUR 4.9m.
Regulatory uncertainties prevail. The Federal Ministry of Health is
evaluating measures that could restrict telemedicine-based cannabis
prescriptions and curb mail-order distribution. While the direct impact
would be limited (telecan is not a meaningful revenue driver), these
proposals, if enacted, could constrain patient access and affect market
dynamics. Cannabis-focused pharmacies are therefore showing more cautious
ordering patterns. It remains unclear, to what extent access will be
restricted. However, we see Cantourage as well positioned to weather those
changes; adapting the product offering, increasing cooperations with offline
pharmacies and entering additional markets to decrease the dependency on
Germany.
European expansion ongoing. Next to Germany, Cantourage has already
established itself as a significant player in the UK. In September, the
company announced that it already supplied 1.5 tons of medical cannabis to
the UK market (eNuW: low double-digit EUR m of sales). In Poland, Cantourage
is further increasing its presence and is also preparing to enter further
European markets such as Spain and Italy. Ultimately, the company is
decreasing its dependency on the German market and adding additional growth
pillars to the story.
Current share price development remains de-coupled from the company's
operational developments. Trading at 0.5x EV/sales FY25e despite expected
growth of >70% seems unjustified. We confirm our BUY rating with an
unchanged EUR 10.50 PT based on DCF.

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https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=b7d2dc165f16e8850360b9c33adbca41
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2223196 04.11.2025 CET/CEST

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