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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - von NuWays AG

06.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Veröffentlichung einer Research, übermittelt durch EQS News - ein Service
der EQS Group.
Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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Einstufung von NuWays AG zu ZEAL Network SE

Unternehmen: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 06.11.2025
Kursziel: EUR 66.0
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 months
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Strong Q3 EBITDA beat and a 2nd guidance raise in the cards

ZEAL reported a superb set of Q3 results, driven by a recovering user
activity in lottery and strong developments in Games. in detail:
Lottery revenues increased by 39% yoy to EUR 55m (eNuW: EUR 48m) driven by 30%
yoy higher billings (EUR 307m; eNuW: EUR 278m) but more importantly from an
increasing billings margin of 17.9% (+1.2pp yoy; eNuW: 17.5%) on the back of
an improving product mix. Our meaningful underestimation of billings
resulted from a higher than expected user activity, as monthly active users
(MAUs) increased by 26% yoy to 1.69m (eNuW: 1.56m) with stable monthly
average billings per user (ABPU) of EUR 60.68 (+2.9% yoy). We regard this
increase to stem from a mix of the two peak jackpots in Q3 coupled with a
recovery in activity cohorts acquired in the past, as they should have grown
trust in and loyalty to Lotto24.

Also baked into the strong lottery sales growth is the superb performance of
the Dream House raffle. The fourth house draw in Sept.'25 has generated EUR
11.8m in billings (37% above average of draw #1-3) thanks to a growth in
ABPU to EUR 25.18 (19% above average) coupled with active users being up 14%
above average.

Although not being material, Games showed a strong performance, as sales
increased by 55% yoy to EUR 3.6m on the back of a growing user base (+55% yoy)
and stable user spending.

In sum, group sales came in up 38% at EUR 61m (eNuW: EUR 55m), which ultimately
resulted in a strong beat of our bottom-line expectation. EBITDA increased
by 26% yoy to EUR 19m (eNuW: EUR 14m) on the back of higher sales. The margin
came in at 30.7% (-3.1pp yoy) due to a strong marketing push of EUR 21m (+83%
yoy above Q3'24 with no peak jackpots). However, the underlying performance
(EBITDA adj. for marketing) marks a 5.2pp yoy increase in margin, showing
the strong operating leverage and improving fixed costs coverage at ZEAL.

Against this backdrop, the guidance raised in Sept'25 of EUR 205-215m in sales
with an EBITDA of EUR 63-68m appears conservative, in our view. It implies Q4
sales of EUR 42-52m (eNuW: EUR 54m) with an EBITDA ranging from EUR 9-14m (eNuW: EUR
14m). Therefore, we now expect a guidance reach at the upper end or slightly
above. Given a strong jackpot environment in Q4 (unpredictable), a second
guidance raise should then be no surprise.

All in all, ZEAL operates like a clockwork and continuously beats our
expectations. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and raise our
PT to EUR 66.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=1db88a3e8b98dbf48734d84eec6f6aeb
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier
downloaden: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Kontakt für Rückfragen:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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