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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

15.12.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE
ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.12.2025
Target price: EUR 13.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

TB2 boxes out the bears; chg. est & PT

During Q3 '25, Tonies launched the Toniebox 2 (TB2), marking its most
significant innovation sincethe original Toniebox (TB1) in 2016. With this
report, we highlight how TB2 secures additional growthpotential to this
already upbeat investment case:

The TB2 effectively substantiialy increases the adressable market to 1-9
year olds (prev. 3-7year olds) by adding the interactive play format
"Tonieplay", especially relevant for the age group 5-9and also introduced
"My First Tonies", a line of figurines designed for children aged one or
older.Besides that, notable hardware upgrades, further content partnerships
and likely higher usernumbers, should lay the foundation for a strong
demand, which is visible already.

Unmatched competitive position. Being the first mover and effectively the
inventor of a completelynew toy category has turned tonies into the category
leader of screen-free entertainment for kidswith the largest customer base
worldwide. tonies unique ecosystem creates strong lock-in effects , where
kids want to expand their beloved figurines collection that leads to higher
engagementrates. On the partner side, tonies is the go-to content platform
for global licensors (e.g. Disney,PawPatrol, Hasbro, Pokémon), given its
large worldwide installed base and broad reach.

Next to growth from product innovations, tonies has ample growth from
internationalization andmarket roll-outs ahead. Especially in the US
(currently c. 10% market penetration, far below DACH levels of c. 50%),
tonies should be able to more than double sales to EUR 473m by FY'28e
(eNuW).This should be driven by rising demand from retailers and expanding
visibility at their stores aswell as strong customer awareness due to an
exceptionally high NPS of 77. Next to the US andDACH, tonies'
data-driven approach allows it to make expansion decisions based on
alreadyknown customer insights. Therefore, we expect similarly or even
stronger growth profile in thesegment ROW, where segment sales are expected
to grow at a 41% CAGR to reach EUR 308m inFY'28e (eNuW).

DACH serves as a blue-print (23.1% EBITDA margin in FY'24) for
profitability. North America (2.5% EBITDA margin in FY'24) and ROW (2.6%
EBITDA margin in FY'24) should converge to DACH'smargin profile in the
long-run, however only after the cost intensive expansion is less
pronouncedand sufficient scale is reached.
With rising group margins, improving WC dynamics and a capital-light set up,
tonies transitionsever more into a cash generative company.

Hence, we expect FCFs to expand from mostlynegative territory in the past to
EUR 61m by FY'28e. Going forward, the upcoming CMD in Q2'26 (nodate announced
yet) should deliver further insights into its mid-term growth outlook
andmanagement's planned use of future FCFs.

Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our
DCF-based PT to EUR 13.00 (old: EUR 11.00) as the TB2 launch provides more
confidence on tonies overall growth and margin trajectory.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=528be242fc73c68e252a52f3d021f78b
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2245278 15.12.2025 CET/CEST

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