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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

06.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE
ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 14
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Q4 prelims out: TB2 drives earnings beat; PT Up

tonies released strong preliminary FY25 figures with margins at the upper
end of the guidance range and better than expected growth carried by a
continued strong operational execution of the companies strategic
initiatives. In detail:

FY group revenue rose 31% yoy (+36% cc) to EUR 630m, clearly above the ">EUR
600m" target, thanks to the successful roll-out of Toniebox 2 (TB2),
portfolio expansion into new content categories and interactive games, as
well as the ongoing global expansion.

Notably, growth across all region was strong: North America remained the key
growth engine, up 31% yoy (+40% cc) to EUR 276m, while the group's most mature
region (~ 50% market penetration) DACH re-accelerated with +16% yoy to EUR
214m supported by a TB2-enabled broader addressable market with likely
product upgrades (TB1 to TB2). Rest of World again outperformed, surging 64%
yoy (+68% cc) to EUR 141m, highlighting the traction of recent expansions into
the UK, France, and ANZ. Q4 was particularly impactful, with EUR 313m revenue
(+31% yoy; +39% cc), accounting for roughly 50% of the full year,
underlining the strength of the holiday season, Black Friday/Cyber Monday,
and the commercial success of TB2.

Margin expansion despite major product launch and tariff headwinds. The
group's FY adj. EBITDA margin improved 1.1pp yoy to 8.5%, hitting the upper
end of the 6.5-8.5% guidance range and beating our 6.9% estimate. This
suggests a favourable product mix (higher-margin figurines, accessories and
content) and better operating leverage. While DACH already generates >20%
margins, the growth engines North America and Rest of World are gradually
converging to those margins once the cost intensive expansion is less
pronounced and sufficient scale/market penetration is reached.

FCF generation (not part of released prelims) for FY25 should have been
rather muted in light of TB2 launch-related inventory build-ups; eNuW: EUR 1m.
Nevertheless, tonies' balance sheet features EUR 73m of net cash (YE '25e).
With dividends not yet possible, the only sensible capital allocation
measures are share buybacks, in our view. We would expect further details on
the capital allocation topic during the planned CMD in Q2.

FY26 with continued profitable growth. With the successful TB2 transition,
tonies' addressable market has notably expanded; from 3-7 year-olds to 1-9
year-olds. Supported by further international scaling and a deepening
ecosystem, we expect a c. 22% sales CAGR through 2028e to ~EUR 1.15bn, with
adjusted EBITDA margins rising toward ~12% over the same period. FY26
guidance is likely to be provided with the release of the audited FY25
results in April.

The preliminary earnings release fully underpins our strong conviction on
the investment case, grounded in rising international market penetration and
subsequent margin and FCF improvements. At the same time, valuation remains
attractive. We confirm our BUY rating with a slightly increased EUR 14 PT
(old: EUR 13) based on DCF. -change of analyst-

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=6c960786e467076190d3ac76baae88cb
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https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2272450 06.02.2026 CET/CEST

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