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Original-Research: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG - from GBC AG

17.03.2026 / 10:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of GBC AG to SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG

Company Name: SMARTBROKER HOLDING AG
ISIN: DE000A2GS609

Reason for the research: Research Comment
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: 17.60 EUR
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026
Last rating change:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Smartbroker Holding AG: Preliminary 2025 figures confirm strong operating
performance, with a solid foundation for further profitable growth in 2026

Smartbroker Holding AG has published preliminary, unaudited figures for the
2025 financial year and at the same time provided guidance for the current
2026 financial year. According to the company, revenue for the past year
came in at EUR69.0 million, while operating EBITDA reached break even at EUR0.0
million. In addition, around 77,350 new customers were acquired for
Smartbroker+ in the transactions business. Both revenue and earnings were
therefore in line with the company guidance, which had been raised several
times over the course of the year. For 2026, the company expects group
revenue in a range of EUR66.0 million to EUR72.0 million and operating EBITDA
between negative EUR1.5 million and positive EUR1.5 million. In brokerage,
Smartbroker expects to add around 100,000 new customers in 2026.

In the context of our last Research Comment dated 7 January 2026, the newly
published preliminary figures came in slightly ahead of our expectations
overall. Based on the company guidance that had been raised at that time, we
had forecast 2025 revenue of EUR68.0 million and operating EBITDA of EUR0.0
million. The actual preliminary revenue figure therefore came in slightly
above our estimate, while operating EBITDA matched our forecast exactly.
This confirms the strong operating momentum that had already become visible
during the year. In particular, high trading activity, strong customer
growth and progress in scaling the platform had a positive impact.

We view it as especially encouraging that the company was operationally
profitable in 2025 before taking customer acquisition costs into account and
generated clearly positive EBITDA before these expenses. In our view, this
underlines the growing operating resilience of the business model. The
earnings profile is therefore less a sign of structural margin pressure and
more the result of deliberately elevated investment in future growth.

It is also worth highlighting that Smartbroker met the target range that had
been raised several times during the year. This shows that the company was
able to maintain the strong operating momentum in its brokerage business
through year end. Although new customer additions of 77,350 were slightly
below the most recently indicated level of around 80,000, we see this as
only a marginal shortfall given the overall strong momentum. More
importantly, the figures continue to point to significantly improved market
penetration and the strong appeal of the Smartbroker+ platform. In addition,
we believe the quality of the customer base is a key differentiator for
Smartbroker+ and is not yet fully reflected in how the company is currently
perceived. One particularly notable factor is the above average trading
activity of its users. In 2025, Smartbroker+ customers executed around 38
trades per customer on average. This activity level is clearly above that of
many competitors. By comparison, based on preliminary 2025 figures,
flatexDEGIRO reported a significantly lower level of 23 trades per customer.
For traditional brokers such as comdirect, Consorsbank and DKB, we assume
that activity levels are in a similar range or lower.

This customer profile is especially relevant because monetization in the
brokerage business depends heavily on trading frequency. The high level of
trading activity therefore suggests that Smartbroker+ is particularly
successful in attracting trading oriented customers who are economically
more valuable. In our view, this supports the company's strategic
positioning in the active investor segment and should translate into
structurally more attractive revenue quality per customer over the medium
term. The customer base also appears high quality in terms of assets under
custody per customer. According to the company, assets per Smartbroker+
customer amount to around EUR55k, which is a high level. Combined with the
significantly higher trading intensity, this reinforces our view that
Smartbroker+ is not only winning customers, but is building durable
relationships with especially valuable and trading active clients.

At first glance, the 2026 guidance may appear cautious, but in our view it
should be regarded as solid and achievable. The main reason for this
conservative stance is likely the ban on payment for order flow, or PFOF,
which will take effect from July 2026 and will prevent brokers from
continuing to receive these payments. The PFOF ban prohibits brokers from
accepting compensation for routing client orders to specific trading venues.
For many neobrokers, this removes a revenue stream that has been relevant
until now and creates pressure to adjust pricing structures, cost bases and
monetization models. That said, it is encouraging that, according to the
company, the loss of this revenue is expected to be almost fully offset by
cost measures introduced at an early stage. As a result, management does not
expect any major structural impact on future earnings. We also see it as a
strong signal of the competitiveness and resilience of the business model
that Smartbroker intends to continue offering its full product range to end
customers on unchanged terms.

We are also encouraged by the start to the new financial year. In the first
two months of 2026 alone, the company added more than 13,000 new customers.
In addition, January delivered a new monthly record for executed trades.
This performance highlights the company's strong operating condition and
suggests that the target of 100,000 new customers is based on realistic
assumptions even without the introduction of a retirement investment
account.

The strategic focus for 2026 is on accelerating customer growth once again.
To achieve this, marketing investment in new customer acquisition is set to
rise to around EUR12.5 million, up roughly EUR2.5 million from the previous
year. At the same time, the company is continuing to expand Smartbroker+
both technologically and in terms of product offering. Planned additions
include features such as direct debits, powers of attorney, stop loss and
hedging orders, automatic reinvestment of distributions and dividends, an
improved desktop version and junior accounts. At the same time, the IT team
is expected to grow by a further 20 employees across IT, data and artificial
intelligence.

Another supportive factor is the still profitable portal business, which
continues to provide a stable earnings base. For 2026, the company expects
this segment to generate revenue of around EUR28 million and EBITDA of around
EUR6 million. This earnings base acts as a reliable cash flow anchor and
provides the financial flexibility needed to continue investing in growth
initiatives in the brokerage segment. Especially during the current
transformation phase, we believe the hybrid business model, combining a high
margin media business with a high growth brokerage business, represents a
significant strategic advantage.

There may also be additional upside from the planned retirement investment
account. This is not yet reflected in the current guidance, but if
implemented politically it could provide further growth momentum and
position Smartbroker early in a newly emerging market segment. At the same
time, the medium-term outlook also appears attractive. As part of its
strategic development, the company is now targeting structural annual new
customer growth of around 130,000 from 2027 onward, compared with the
previous assumption of 100,000 new customers per year. The potential effects
of a retirement investment account are not yet included in this figure. In
our view, this creates additional medium term upside potential.

Overall, we believe the preliminary 2025 figures confirm the company's very
encouraging operating performance. At the same time, the 2026 guidance shows
that despite regulatory headwinds, Smartbroker has a robust operating base
and is determined to continue on its growth path. The strong start to 2026,
the continued willingness to invest in customer growth and technology, and
the improved medium term growth outlook all reinforce what we see as the
company's attractive opportunity profile. Overall, we believe the investment
case has not only been confirmed by the preliminary figures, but further
strengthened. We will conduct a more comprehensive reassessment once the
final numbers are published.

You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=a3da8bae5b2053546da7cf1c549a5372

Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
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Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher
Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher
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+++++++++++++++
Completion: March 17, 2026 (8:40 a.m.)
First distribution: March 17, 2026 (10:00 a.m.)

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2292416 17.03.2026 CET/CEST

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